It's Way Too Early For This...

...but it's also too fun and enticing to pass up this opportunity. A recent post over at Hot Air by Ed Morrissey notes that the Republican National Committee has narrowed down the field of possible host cities for the 2012 Republican National Convention to four sites: Houston, Phoenix, Tampa, and Salt Lake City.

I think Ed's right that Tampa makes the most sense, at least from a strategic, electoral standpoint, given Florida's extreme importance as a swing-state with a sizable chunk of electoral votes- just ask Al Gore. Upon hearing the news, though, I decided it was time for a blog post about potential Republican presidential nominees in 2012. What follows is a list of five of the most-discussed possible candidates, in no particular order, with some commentary about each. I will predict each person's likelihood of actually running for president in 2012, I will comment upon their strengths and weaknesses as both a primary candidate and a general election candidate (I'll assume, for the purposes of this post, that Barack Obama will be the Democratic Party's nominee), and I'll close with a few remarks about each person. Enjoy...


1) Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts.

- Likelihood of running: Very high

- STRENGTHS: Romney is a more formidable general election candidate than a primary one. As a former Republican governor of a deeply blue state, Romney proved he could be a pragmatic problem-solver with appeal to liberals and moderates, independents and Democrats. He looks presidential, he's a great speaker, and he has credibility as a guy with vast private sector experience and a solid grasp of economic issues.

- WEAKNESSES: The 300 pound gorilla on his back is "RomneyCare," the health care reform legislation for Massachusetts that he signed into law and supported as governor- legislation that looks eerily similar to the Democrats' Senate bill. He'll be forced to defend his position on RomneyCare time and again by conservative challengers as they battle for Republican primary voters, who of course tend to be more conservative, more partisan, and more politically-aware than general election voters. Romney will also face a bit of an uphill battle in both a primary and general election because of his Mormon faith. Finally, Mitt comes across as your consummate politician: smooth-talking, and perhaps willing to do a Kerry-esque flip-flop once in awhile (for example, he's changed his position on abortion over the years).

- RANDOM THOUGHTS: Romney is a solid candidate and would probably run a very disciplined, intelligent campaign against Obama. He'd more than hold his own against Barack in a debate. He'll have to be careful not to let the "flip-flopper" charge stick though...we saw how much that hurt John Kerry in '04. Mitt Romney's worst enemy may be himself- he needs to make sure he stays true to himself and comes across as a genuine, trustworthy individual. You can reverse your position on an issue here or there, but you can't run away and hide from your record. Explain it, defend the parts of your record worth defending, and humbly admit where you went wrong and how you intend to do things differently next time around.


2) Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska

- Likelihood of running: Beats me- Sarah's a maverick alright, as her shocking, abrupt decision to resign the governorship made clear. But if I have to venture a guess, I'd say it's possible but somewhat unlikely that she runs in 2012.

- STRENGTHS: Palin would be an extremely polarizing presidential candidate, as her presence on the McCain ticket showed in 2008. She has remained extremely relevant via Facebook, a book/book tour, an appearance on Oprah, and her new role on Fox News, and she has a base of supporters who absolutely adore her. That loyal fan-base would serve her well in a Republican primary, especially one that is populated by several different candidates who will divide up the vote. She benefits immensely from her "outsider" status, and she comes across as an extraordinarily genuine and down-to-earth "hockey mom." Lots of Americans feel a sort of kinship or bond with Palin because of the ordinariness that she cultivates so well. She's a proven reformer and her conservative credentials are virtually impeccable. She's also a woman, which may give her an advantage with female voters.

- WEAKNESSES: There are many. First and most obviously, she is an amazingly divisive figure. Many general election voters (and even primary voters, for that matter) have already made up their minds about her: they hate her or they love her. That's probably unlikely to change much over the course of a campaign. She's great at giving a prepared speech, just like our current president, but she has struggled mightily in interviews or at speaking off-the-cuff. Her inexperience is sure to be touted by Obama...and while Palin can credibly claim to have some solid executive experience, her decision to resign before her term was up isn't going to help. Neither is her unfamiliarity with foreign policy/international affairs. She's no policy wonk right now, but she could beef up and get better over time. I don't think she's stupid, but she'll have to fight hard to reverse the image she has in the mainstream media of not being intellectually up to the job.

- RANDOM THOUGHTS: Please, please, Sarah, don't run for president in 2012. If the primary field is diverse and wide-open, as it is likely to be, she stands a real chance to snatch some early victories, gain momentum, and become the nominee. I could be wrong, but I just don't think she can win a general election right now. In the future, maybe, but Sarah Palin was rushed too far, too fast by the McCain camp in 2008, and she needs time. She should continue campaigning for Republicans, speaking out on her Facebook page, connecting with voters, and most of all, demonstrating that she has a firm grasp of the issues.


3) Tim Pawlenty, current governor of Minnesota

- Likelihood of running: Very high

- STRENGTHS: Pawlenty is a bit of a blank slate compared to Palin and Romney, which would probably serve him well in a general election- most moderate/independent voters would be likely to give him a fair hearing (as opposed to Palin, whom many have already made up their minds about). Pawlenty comes from a blue-collar background, and he has a real ability to connect with ordinary, working-class and middle-class Americans by virtue of his upbringing and his calm, amiable demeanor. He's smart, he knows policy, and he's got impressive executive experience as governor of a relatively liberal, blue state.

- WEAKNESSES: Pawlenty's lack of name recognition will be an obstacle in the primaries, as will his Romney-esque record of pursuing pragmatic solutions in Minnesota. T-Paw, as some are already calling him, also flirted with supporting climate change legislation but now opposes the cap and trade bill that the House passed. Thus, like Romney, Pawlenty faces a potential credibility gap with conservatives. In fact, come to think of it, Pawlenty and Romney have a lot in common as candidates- except Romney's extremely wealthy and T-Paw has a working-class background. Pawlenty's mild-mannered style might be a weakness in a debate format.

- RANDOM THOUGHTS: I really like Pawlenty- he's a young, fresh face in the party with a solid record...in fact, he was apparently McCain's runner-up choice for VP in '08. He's seems to be fiscally conservative enough for me- he's currently pushing a federal balanced budget amendment to shore up his fiscal conservatism credentials. I'm not sure if Pawlenty's more non-confrontational style would play well or poorly with voters in a debate against the similarly mild-mannered Obama.


4) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House

- Likelihood of running: 50/50?

- STRENGTHS: Newt is incredibly intelligent and has a brilliant policy mind, combined with a firm grasp of the issues and a wealth of experience. He'd make Barack Obama seem absolutely average (at best) in a debate, which is saying something. He's feisty and he's not afraid to call 'em like he sees 'em, a trait that can obviously be a double-edged sword. He's been especially critical of the Obama administration's approach to foreign policy/fighting terrorism, and he's, at least in my view, a rock-solid conservative, which should make him viable in a primary. Newt would be likely to get the party establishment's support...but of course, with both parties and DC in general so discredited, that may be more of a bane than a boon.

- WEAKNESSES: He hurt his brand immensely with influential segments of the Republican base when he backed Dede Scozzafava in the special New York 23 House election this past year, and his avowed willingness to work with the Democrats on issues like climate change also won't help him in a primary fight against a more conservative candidate. He even did a commercial side-by-side with Speaker Pelosi, which is sure to be re-aired time and again by primary opponents. Newt has a checkered personal past, including an affair and a divorce, that may weigh him down. And his feisty-ness can border on nastiness (see some of his verbal assaults on Clinton and the Democrats during his speakership), which may turn off the general electorate.

- RANDOM THOUGHTS: At this juncture, Newt Gingrich is my favorite candidate in the potential field. I firmly believe we're going to need someone to run against Barack Obama that is bright, knows the issues inside-and-out, and can coherently present an alternative vision for America's future. This is, I think, what Newt Gingrich does better than anyone else I've seen. The thought of him at the podium debating President Obama sends a Chris Matthews-esque thrill up my leg. Newt's got skeletons in his closet, but don't they all? I respect Newt's conservative views, and I appreciate his realistic outlook- he understands that to get things done in our political system, you do have to work with folks on the other side of the aisle. He's also not afraid to let loose a barrage of criticism against those same people when he believes they're wrong.


5) Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas.

- Likelihood of running: Unlikely (I think)

- STRENGTHS: Mike Huckabee is very smart and has a great sense of humor. He's charismatic and extremely likable...in fact, it's almost impossible NOT to like the guy, even if you don't agree with him on any of the issues. Huckabee had a lot of admirers last time around, who loved his down-to-earth manner, his self-deprecating humor, and his strong convictions. He ran an extremely competitive primary campaign with very little resources. Huckabee's an unapologetic social conservative and a proud man of faith, which serves him well in a Republican primary race, where Evangelical voters make up a considerable chunk of likely voters.

- WEAKNESSES: Huckabee's reputation suffered a bit of a blow when it turned out that he pardoned Maurice Clemmons, the ex-convict who shot and killed four police officers in Washington back in November. That decision is sure to come under fire, especially from primary opponents. Huckabee's religiosity might be a turn-off in a general election...voters like presidential candidates to have some religious affiliation, but Huckabee's former occupation as a pastor may make moderate/independent voters uneasy.

- RANDOM THOUGHTS: I don't think Huckabee's going to run this time, but I could be wrong. Like I said, it's really impossible not to like the guy...but for me, Mike Huckabee is someone I'd love to have as a next-door neighbor, as a mentor, as a governor...I'm just not sure about president of the United States and commander in chief of the armed forces. It's hard for me to envision world leaders taking Mike Huckabee very seriously, and it's also hard for me to imagine Huck talking tough with them. I think Huck is happy hosting his show on Fox and writing books. He's got a good thing going...why disrupt it for another exhausting, rather long-shot presidential run?


OK, so there's a little discussion to whet your appetite for the 2012 presidential campaign, which actually (scarily?) isn't all that far off. After all, once the midterm elections are over in November, you'll start hearing Republicans declaring their intentions.

If Obama's approval ratings remain as low as they are now, I think you're likely to see a very solid field of Republican candidates. If Obama gets his legs under him this year and makes a bit of a comeback, which I think is quite possible, then certain Republicans with bright futures might wait it out. It can be quite damaging to run a losing presidential campaign, and if potential candidates think Obama is unlikely to lose, they'll probably sit this one out. Time will tell. Either way, though, we'll have better options than BO!

I'll close by just mentioning a handful of other names that I've heard batted about as possible Republican challengers:

- John Thune, Senator from South Dakota - keep an eye on him, a real rising star.
- Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana - young, Indian, highly intelligent, but I think more likely to wait in the wings- maybe a VP in '12?
- Bob McDonnell, Governor of Virginia - too soon, since he just won the governorship in November '09 and would have to start gearing up for the campaign this year- but again, definite VP material in '12
- Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi - do we really want an older, rather boring, Southerner leading the Republican revival this time around?
- General David Petraeus - not going to happen, but wouldn't that be something?
- Rick Santorum, former Senator from Pennsylvania - staunch conservative, maybe too staunch
- Rick Perry, Governor of Texas - he's got a primary fight on his hands this year...whether he wins or loses, I think there's a good chance he runs
- Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York - the fact that he decided not to run for governor or Senate seemed to me like an indication he might try this again...


There are, of course, others I could have added to this list. I'll be interested to hear what other people think about this post!