Crist/Bayh in 2012?

Now, let me preface this by saying that what I'm about to suggest is pure speculation and therefore not all that useful. In fact, this isn't even speculation, because speculation often implies some level of prediction, and I am not making a serious prediction here. Nor do I necessarily wish this to happen. This is more of an interesting thought exercise than anything else. But it's a fun one.

Oh and by the way, in the event that this actually happens, disregard my opening paragraph disclaimer about this not being a prediction. I'll look like an absolute genius. Genius.

Behold:

I read online today a very credible rumor that the current governor of Florida, Charlie Crist, a Republican, will make the switch to Independent in his bid for US Senate.

For those of you who haven't followed the Senate campaign unfolding in Florida, it's fascinating. Back in 2008, Crist was a very popular governor of an influential battleground state. Crist's endorsement of John McCain in the run-up to the Florida primary helped give McCain a boost and put him over the top in Florida, a key victory that effectively cleared McCain's path to the GOP nomination. Crist's name was subsequently batted about as a possible VP selection, and he was seen by many as a rising star in Republican politics. He was conservative enough (or so it seemed, at the time) for much of the party's base, with a centrist-y, pragmatic streak that appealed to GOP moderates and independents (and perhaps a few Democrats too).

But in 2009, with the unexpected rise of the influential Tea Party movement, Crist's political fortunes changed dramatically. Crist came under intense fire from the energized fiscal conservative wing of the GOP for his public support of the president's "stimulus" bill. He earned the infamous RINO label ("Republican In Name Only") and became a favorite target of conservatives disenchanted with the GOP's agenda of reckless spending during the Bush years. The argument that was made by these conservatives (and is still being made right now) is that Republicans will only win again by returning to their limited government principles, not by becoming "Democrat Lite."

Enter Marco Rubio, former speaker of the Florida state house. Rubio is a young, charismatic Latino with solid conservative credentials. Upon announcing his primary challenge to Governor Crist in the Senate race, Rubio quickly became a darling of the Tea Party movement, riding the anti-Obama, anti-Democrat, anti-big government wave sweeping the nation. With incredible speed, Rubio went from an unknown long-shot, to a viable contender for the Republican nomination...and now, to the overwhelming favorite to win not only the GOP nomination, but the seat as well (the Democrat, Kendrick Meek, is polling weakly in a prospective head-to-head match-up with Rubio).

A few days ago, some of Crist staffer's left the campaign, claiming that the campaign was "going in a different direction." Now, today, a completely believable rumor about Crist running for Senate as an Independent. It makes sense. Rubio has opened up an insurmountable lead in GOP primary polls against Crist, so Crist can either a) stay the course, lose the Republican primary, and in all likelihood fade away, b) pull an Arlen Specter party switch, run as a Democrat, and in all likelihood lose to Rubio in the general election (or perhaps even to Meek in the Dem. primary), c) drop out of the race immediately and in all likelihood fade away or d) go the Joe Lieberman independent route, make the election into a chaotic, 3-way Rubio-Meek-Crist battle, and hope to peel off enough Democratic voters and hold enough centrist-y Republicans to eke out a win over Rubio. I think that's highly unlikely, too, since Rubio would have the vocal support of virtually every important Republican in the state and country, the vast fund-raising opportunities and turnout operations that come with that, and the ever-important twin pillars of enthusiasm and MO-MEN-TUM.

In other words, if you're Charlie Crist, you're up shit's creek. And yes, you have no paddle. Or do you?

And this is where the fun starts.

Let's say Crist runs as an Independent, as it appears he will. Let's also assume he loses to Rubio in November, which at this point seems like a decent bet, given the polls in Florida, the current political climate, and the mood of the electorate. Finally, let's imagine Crist is determined to keep his political career, now on life-support, alive, because, well, the guy's a politician, and that's what politicians do, God love 'em.

Put yourself in Charlie's shoes. You angered conservative Republican purists, and you probably can't win them back. You'll never win with committed Leftists. But hard-line conservative Republicans and the far-left make up relatively small segments of the populace.

The vast majority of Americans are fed up with BOTH political parties. That is, after all, what the Tea Party movement is all about. But the Tea Partiers are, for the most part, interested in effecting change within the Republican Party rather than through a third party. Let's say they succeed in co-opting the GOP on the presidential level in 2012 and help propel Sarah Palin to the Republican nomination.

Palin, despite being adored by a certain portion of the Republican base, appears to have little appeal among moderate Republicans, independents, and moderate Democrats. Barack Obama, if he fails to turn things around, will also have little appeal among moderate Republicans, independents, and moderate Democrats come 2012.

And that's when Charlie Crist picks up the phone, calls up moderate Democrat Evan Bayh up in Indiana (at that point, Bayh will be almost two years retired from the Senate), and says something like: "Hey, you know what would be really awesome? If you and I ran for president!"

Naturally, I had to award Crist the top spot and Bayh the VP slot in my ridiculously ridiculous hypothetical scenario because, after all, Charlie was at least a Republican at one point. But if Evan Bayh is the more clever of the two, and he very well might be, perhaps he'll beat Charlie to the punch and Charlie will have to settle for Number 2. That ain't so bad, considering less than two years prior his political career seemed dead.

Let me conclude by recapping the things that have to fall into place for this to happen. Crist must lose the race for the Florida Senate seat. He must desire to keep his political career going. The Republicans must nominate a candidate for president in 2012 who has a devoted throng of core supporters but very little appeal to key portions of their own party as well as independents and moderate Democrats. Barack Obama must continue to govern incompetently and alienate independents as well as moderates in his own party. Evan Bayh must be open to the possibility of running on a ticket with a former Republican, either as president or vice-president. Charlie Crist must be open to the idea of running alongside a (former?) Democrat, either as president of vice-president.

So there you have it. A Crist/Bayh third party campaign for the presidency in 2012 that emphasizes the extent to which partisan rancor and politics-as-usual are causing gridlock in DC and preventing us from solving the problems facing our nation. A campaign that offers voters a third option, a middle way between a right-wing nut-job from Alaska and a pinko commie from Chicago.

You heard it here first.