Stay Strong, Ben Nelson!

Despite the death of public option AND the death of the Medicare buy-in proposal, Senator Ben Nelson, the centrist Democrat from Nebraska, announced that he cannot support the legislation in its current form, and so, if the cloture vote happened with the reform proposal as presently constituted, Nelson would join the Republicans in a filibuster and refuse to vote for cloture. When I first heard this, I figured Nelson's opposition was limited to the abortion language being proposed in the Senate (Nelson is a pro-life Democrat who supports upholding the Hyde Amendment prohibiting federal funding for abortions). But Ed Morrissey has audio and the transcript of a radio interview Nelson did today, and it turns out that Nelson has other issues with the bill too preventing him from voting for cloture (here's the HotAir link: http://hotair.com/archives/2009/12/17/breaking-nelson-rejects-abortion-compromise/).

Here's the highlight of the exchange, again, via the HotAir post:

HOST: “But if the abortion issue is taken care of to your satisfaction, whether it be some kind of compromise that is to your satisfaction, would that be enough for you to vote for cloture and go forward?”

NELSON: “No.”

HOST: “That’s not enough alone?”

NELSON: “That’s not enough.”

It's hard to tell whether Nelson is just holding out for as many concessions as possible before finally caving...but his stance on the abortion issue, at least, seems rather uncompromising. I figured Lieberman's opposition to the bill ended when Reid dropped both the public option AND the Medicare buy-in...but perhaps Nelson's opposition will embolden Lieberman even further. And who knows, maybe Blanche Lincoln, the moderate Democrat from Arkansas, who was also a strong opponent of the public option, will piggyback on Nelson's complaints too.

The rumor out there now is that the Democrats may aim for a vote on the bill on Christmas Eve...the strategy being, get something passed, go to conference after Christmas, and have a bill on the president's desk so he can brandish it during his first State of the Union. But that timetable seems completely unrealistic, especially given this other remark by Nelson during the interview: “A deadline and a timeline that’s out there that is not achievable isn’t helpful."

Here's the best care scenario for Republicans: the bill continues to be slowed down, and Senate Democrats have to go home and listen to their constituents tell them how bad the bill is. Public opinion against the bill sours more and more every week...and there's no real reason that should change. In fact, with people on the far-left like Howard Dean telling Democrats to "kill the bill," it's quite possible those numbers in favor of the reform proposal will crater even more. As a result, Senate Democrats come back from the Christmas break, and those who have expressed reservations along the way (Lieberman, Lincoln, maybe even Mary Landrieu, Evan Bayh, and Mark Pryor) are energized to join Ben Nelson and make even more demands. Finally, as Nelson and Co. demand more and more, the Dean-type lefties revolt once and for all(they're already most of the way there), and this awful monstrosity of a health reform bill dies.

Then, the Democrats can move on to some sort of jobs bill for the rest of the winter and spring in order to try to save their asses in the midterms. But it'll be way, way too late for that, we'll have a repeat of 1994...and the Republicans will begin a sensible, bipartisan effort at incremental health care reform that favors increased consumer choice and market-based solutions that favor competition and preserve our individual liberties.

A best case scenario, surely, but one that's not impossible...especially if people keep writing to and calling the offices of Senators Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln, etc. and telling them to take Howard Dean's advice and KILL THE BILL.