With just 3 weeks remaining until the postseason begins, the playoff picture is becoming clearer in the NFC and murkier in the AFC. In the NFC, the Saints and Vikings have both clinched their respective divisions, and the Cardinals, despite missing an opportunity to do the same Monday Night in San Francisco, will in all likelihood manage to lock up the West (they play the Lions this week and the Rams next week). The NFC East crown is still up for grabs, but the Eagles appear poised, at 9-4, to either win the division or at least be a wild-card. The surging Green Bay Packers, now 9-4, have a 2 game edge in the wild-card over the Giants, and appear very likely to make the playoffs. That leaves space for one more NFC team...and barring some unlikely scenario where a 6-7 team wins out and slips in, that will be either Dallas or the Giants. Dallas has a one game edge, but lost both head-to-heads with New York...and the Cowboys play at New Orleans tomorrow night.
In the AFC, the Colts have clinched home field throughout the playoffs by virtue of their victory last night against the Jaguars. Assuming the Chargers and Bengals hold off the teams that are two wins behind them in their respective divisions (the Broncos and the Ravens), this leaves 3 more playoff spots up for grabs. One will go to the winner of the increasingly crazy AFC East, where the Patriots are clinging to a 1 game lead over the Dolphins and the Jets. The wild-card picture is also crazy: the Broncos, at 8-5, have a one game edge over the Ravens, the Dolphins, the Jets, a 1.5 game lead over the 7-7 Jaguars, and a two game cushion on the Steelers, Titans, and Texans (told you things were crazy). Assuming the Patriots and Bengals hold onto their divisions and Denver secures one wild-card spot, that leaves the Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, Texans, Steelers, and Titans all vying for the final playoff spot. Wow.
Last week, I went 12-4 on my picks...not bad, not great. I had the Colts beating Jacksonville last night, which happened (barely). Here are the rest of my Week 15 picks:
Dallas (8-5) at New Orleans (13-0): This game has the potential to make every football fan's Saturday night a lot less boring. A win for the Cowboys in New Orleans, despite their remarkably uneven performance all year, would go a long way toward convincing me that Dallas really is a contender. If Dallas was at home, I'd pick them in a heartbeat. It's so tough to win all 16 regular season games, and the Saints have survived by just a field goal in each of their last 2 games, both against teams that didn't have winning records. Oh heck, the Saints are due to lose one soon...why not tomorrow night? Dallas 31, New Orleans 27.
Chicago (5-8) at Baltimore (7-6): Obviously this is an enormous game for the Ravens, and they looked impressive last week (I know, I know, it was the Lions...but still). The Ravens had a great playoff run last year, and they started 3-0 this year, leading me to believe that they, along with the Colts, might be the cream of the crop in the AFC. But then they sunk into mediocrity. Chicago also got off to a solid start and has faded even worse than the Ravens (though they did hang in there with the Packers last week). I think the Ravens get the job done, 24-20.
New England (8-5) at Buffalo (5-8): I don't think this is as easy a pick as most people think. The Patriots look very shaky lately, and the Bills have played a lot of teams tough this year (ask a Patriot fan to think back to their season opener this year). There may be significant snow in the forecast...and against a lot of teams, that might work to the Bills' advantage at home, but against Tom Brady, not so much. Look for the Patriots to win this one, 21-10.
Arizona (8-5) at Detroit (2-11): Two weeks ago, the Cards drubbed the Vikings, leading me to think the Cardinals might just get back to the Super Bowl again this year. They followed up that victory with a pitiful 7 turnover performance on Monday Night in a loss to the Niners. What better prescription for a bounce-back game than a date with the Lions? Cardinals 38, Lions 14.
Houston (6-7) at St. Louis (1-12): The Texans need to win out to have any chance at making the playoffs. Matt Schaub should have a field day against the Rams. Texans 34, Rams 12.
Miami (7-6) at Tennessee (6-7): A tasty match-up between two teams that took awhile to get their first wins (Miami started 0-3, the Titans started 0-6). But after inauspicious starts, both teams have clawed their way back to respectability and into the playoff picture. I think the Titans win this one at home, complicating the AFC wild-card hunt even more, 31-23.
Cleveland (2-11) at Kansas City (3-10): An absolutely revolting football game. If this were the only one o'clock game I was getting on Sunday afternoon, I think I'd spend three hours staring out the window watching the snow pile up instead. Since I have to make a pick, let's go with the Chiefs at home (I did it last week too, and it didn't work out, but the Browns are worse than the Bills). Chiefs win, 24-21.
Atlanta (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6): The Jets defense is finally beginning to play like they did earlier this year, when they started out 3-0. The running game is solid...but they are in that unenviable position of having to put the ball into the hands of an inexperienced QB (whether it's Clemens or Sanchez) and ask them NOT TO LOSE the game. I think they'll have enough to get by the struggling Falcons...but with the Colts and Bengals on the horizon, the Jets face an uphill battle to make the playoffs. Jets, 17-13.
San Francisco (6-7) at Philadelphia (9-4): The 49ers played inspired football last week with their backs to the wall on Monday Night. They'll need to do it again this week. The Eagles offense has looked great some weeks (45 against the Giants!!) and terrible in others (9 against Oakland??). If the 49ers are smart enough to pound the ball with Frank Gore (it's mind-boggling that they don't do it more), I think they can win this game. I'll take another upset here. 49ers 27, Eagles 24.
Oakland (4-9) at Denver (8-5): Um, Broncos, 31-16.
Cincinnati (9-4) at San Diego (10-3): The Chargers are, with the obvious exception of the unbeaten Colts, by far the hottest team in the AFC. A big win over Dallas last week cemented in their status as Super Bowl contenders. Cincinnati, on the other hand, despite an incredible 6-0 record in the division, still puzzles me. I saw a Bengals team last week that was completely overmatched against the superior Vikings. I assume the Chargers will triumph this week, 23-13.
Green Bay (9-4) at Pittsburgh (6-7): Well, this is it for the defending World Champs. Their season has gone from promising to troubling to an all-out nightmare over the past several weeks, culminating in last Thursday's embarrassing loss to the Browns, where the Steelers mustered just 6 (!) points. I'm done picking Pittsburgh...I think. This is a dangerous game for the Packers, but I still think Aaron Rodgers gets it done, 28-21.
Tampa Bay (1-12) at Seattle (5-8): I thought the Buccaneers would give the Jets a game last week, and I was mistaken. Tampa has only 1 win for a reason. They suck. Seahawks win at home, 22-6.
Minnesota (11-2) at Carolina (5-8): The Panthers have scuffled this season, largely because they lack a bona fide NFL quarterback. I like the Vikings in this contest, 35-17.
New York Giants (7-6) at Washington (4-9): This game could very well end the Giants season for good. The Redskins have played pretty well against a number of good teams...and the Giants may not even be a good team (remember when they were 5-0?). But the Giants offense will score enough points on Monday night to survive the Skins, 33-24.
Can't wait for the weekend.
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