What Does Scott Brown's Victory Mean?

Yesterday, Republicans, independents, and yes, even a bunch of moderate Democrats joined forces in, of all places, Massachusetts, sending Republican Scott Brown to the US Senate to fill the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy.

Brown's victory has exponentially increased the enthusiasm among conservatives and moderates that first manifested itself in the Virginia and New Jersey state elections two months ago. In the swing state of Virginia, a state that Barack Obama won in 2008, Republican Bob McDonnell crushed Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race for governor by running an upbeat campaign that deemphasized social issues and highlighted economic/fiscal ones- McDonnell's winning campaign slogan was "Bob for Jobs." McDonnell won the independent vote overwhelmingly. In New Jersey, one of the most reliably blue states in the country, Republican Chris Christie beat the Obama-supported incumbent Democrat John Corzine. While Christie's campaign was less focused and coherent than McDonnell's masterpiece, he too captured the bulk of independent voters.

Many Democrats brushed off these two losses as state elections that revolved around local issues. They emphatically denied that the mass migration of independents who backed Obama in '08 but Republicans in '09 had anything to do with voter discontent over the agenda being pursued by Obama and congressional Democrats. Rather than interpreting these elections as referendums or a wake-up call to move back toward the center, Obama-Pelosi-Reid continued to push an extremely unpopular disaster of a health care reform bill through Congress.

The result? The bluest state in the nation, a state that hasn't sent a Republican to the Senate in almost 40 years, just sent a hitherto unknown Republican state senator to Washington DC to fill the Senate seat formerly occupied by the foremost supporter of a government-run health care system for America. And the man who won, Scott Brown, campaigned vigorously on the message that if elected, he would do everything in his power to stop the current health care reform bill in its tracks and force Congress and the President to start from scratch.

So what does Scott Brown's victory mean? It means even in the liberal stronghold that is the state of Massachusetts, there are a whole lot of people who dislike the current health care reform proposal and resent the way in which it has been crafted- written behind closed doors by a small, hyper-partisan cadre of out-of-touch legislators and voted on in the dead of night.

More broadly, Brown's improbable triumph signals widespread discontent with the left-wing of the Democratic Party. Bill Clinton became the first Democratic president to win re-election since FDR because he flatly refused to be a captive of the left-wing of his party. Clinton staked out moderate positions on social issues, but most importantly, he worked for a balanced budget and welfare reform. He famously proclaimed that "the era of big government is over." This fiscally responsible streak is sorely lacking in today's Democratic congressional leadership and the Obama administration. Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi might agree that "the era of big government is over," but only if the next line is "the era of ENORMOUS government has begun."

This brings me to my final point. Scott Brown holds moderate-to-liberal positions on social issues. Virginia governor Bob McDonnell is an ardent social conservative. But they have lots in common. They're both Republicans, they both ran excellent campaigns in which they connected with independent voters, rallied the base, and flipped some Democrats, and, most significantly, they are both FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE. They repeated their beliefs in limited government, lower taxes, and less spending, and they won by contrasting themselves to the tax and spend liberals in Congress and the White House.

As we move forward to the midterm elections in 2010 and the presidential election in 2012, Republicans should keep Bob McDonnell and Scott Brown in mind. There is room in the Republican tent for social liberals, social moderates, and social conservatives. But there is no more room for reckless spenders or big-government types masquerading as conservatives. Republicans have found the set of issues that win across a large segment of the American political spectrum- fiscal responsibility, limited government, lower taxes. These issues are more likely to unite people, whereas the social issues tend to be more divisive.

Just 20% of Americans call themselves liberal, according to a recent Gallup poll. That number is essentially unchanged since the 1990's. 40% call themselves conservative, and 36% identify themselves as moderates. Those numbers speak volumes about why President Obama's approval ratings are in a dive, why independents are deserting the Democrats in droves, even in Massachusetts, and why the Republican Party is beginning its resurgence so quickly.

But this time around, Republicans need to mean it. No more reckless spending, no more earmarks, no more backroom bribes. Time to get serious, develop an agenda, run on it in 2010 and 2012, and then govern.